Even before the statutorily-triggered gubernatorial recount has officially begun here, the tally is already shifting in Emmer's direction. Dayton's 8,000+ lead was diminished by 103 votes yesterday, as the tinier errors were already being detected. Still, as Secretary of State Ritchie rather injudiciously tweeted (bragged?) yesterday, 8,000 votes seem a rather large gap to overcome.
With both Minnesota's House and legislature now shifting to Republican majorities for the first time in decades, DFL wags are claiming that the failure to elect the Republican candidate for governor represents a rejection of Tom Emmer's strongly conservative ideology. I don't think so. The reticense of moderate voters to fully swing with the Republicans this year has everything to do with the particular personality of the gubernatorial candidate. Tom Emmer was a highly successful trial attorney. Trial attorneys, of necessity, tend to have a certain temperament. Those of us who have enjoyed the mixed blessing of working with and/or otherwise relating to trial attorneys know that there tends to be a dark side to all that necessary assertiveness, just as there is a dark side to almost every personality trait. Early in the campaign, the Star Tribune did a marvelous job of exposing that dark side. Several less-than-favorable altercations with former colleagues and contractors were enumerated, and it left an unsavory taste in the memory buds of many voters. Then, although independent candidate Horner was much closer in ideology to Dayton than Emmer, it was from Emmer's camp that Horner seemed to woo several thousand critical votes.
Given the usual shenanigans and the election night "snafu" that triggered a tally-reporting error to the tune of thousands of votes erroneously recorded in Dayton's favor, it is still quite possible that Emmer may win the race. Whether despite, because of, or irrelevant to, his feisty trial lawyer's temperament, Emmer might well make a fine governor. The Monday-morning quarterbackers among us, however, can't help but grieve the handy election that Marty Seifert would likely have delivered to the Republicans this year. Teamed with the Republican majorities in both the House and Senate, Seifert would not have had to compromise away the small-government values upon which he campaigned, as caucusers legitimately feared he would, given his track record of legislative compromise. Seifert + the Republican majority in the House + the Republican majority in the Senate would have been one sweet equation. It will be very interesting to see how the gubernatorial tally ultimately adds up.
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